The Electoral Guide: What to watch for on Polling Day

The Wild Cards

The power of social media, as well as the indications of voters who have not had the chance to vote in the recent past, will be put to the test in this election. Is the deluge of online voices of dissent on Facebook and sociopolitical blogs representative of feelings on the ground? Will they translate into actual votes? In this unprecedented election where all except one constituency is contested, how will voters in previously uncontested wards vote? All these questions will only be answered on Polling Day.

The Battlefields

Aljunied GRC: The defining race of the election which bears no further explanation. A titanic battle lies ahead, and it remains to be seen if the politics of hope or the politics of fear will triumph. A win for the WP will be taken as a mandate for it to push its policies forward. Conversely, a PAP hold on this area, despite having fielded competent opposition candidates, will be viewed as an immense setback for the Opposition, diminishing its credibility and leading to the loss of WP representation in Parliament.

Hougang and Potong Pasir SMCs: Without incumbents to defend their seats, this will be an important test of the staying power of the Opposition. Will longtime supporters of Low Thia Khiang and Chiam See Tong defect without their presence? Or will they continue to support their successors?

Punggol East SMC: This race will be a test of the standing between the PAP, WP and SDA. It will be interesting to see if the PAP will obtain more than 50% of the votes there. Doing so will indicate that the PAP will be difficult to unseat in there even in a two-way contest. In addition, if the WP manages to attract a significant fraction of otherwise SDA voters, this will cement the impression of the WP as the dominant opposition party to watch.

Marine Parade GRC: The GRC which raised eyebrows about the fairness of the GRC system,  this will be a test of how significant the so-called Tin Pei Ling factor is. Will swing voters cast their votes in a manner to express their frustration with the system? One thing will not change however: Nicole Seah will remain a force to be reckoned with in local politics, even if she does not triumph.

Ang Mo Kio GRC: In his maiden electoral contest in the 2006 GE, PM Lee swept 66.14% of valid votes from the WP team which had been widely dubbed as a ‘suicide squad’. This time round, PM Lee will be receiving the report card for his team’s performance over the last five years. Whatever the result, expect PM Lee to analyse the electoral returns for his district really closely for signs of trouble ahead.

East Coast GRC / Bukit Panjang SMC, the controls: Both constituencies are having a face-off between the same parties. In addition, both candidate teams are similar. This will let us see to what degree the ground has become “less sweet” over the last five years. In the 2006 GE, the PAP did marginally worse than the national average in East Coast GRC with 64% of the vote. It is wards like this that will be critical if the Opposition intends to take power, and thus we are watching this race closely for its potential long-term ramifications. In contrast, Bukit Panjang SMC broke the most strongly for the PAP, with 77% of the vote, and will thus, as an uncompetitive contest, will be the cleanest gauge of how much discontent has been brewing. Specifically, it will also suggest how successful the SDP rebranding effort has been.

Our Forecast

Despite the foolhardy nature of forecasting without any hard data, we think a vote share of 60% for the PAP sounds reasonable. According to the Cube Rule, this would translate to 5-6 constituencies in Opposition hands, a marked improvement from the two currently in Opposition control.

Yet practical considerations suggest the actual figure is likely to be lower. There are no other obvious constituencies ripe for the taking after Aljunied GRC. Any other opposition gains will thus come from dark horses: races that have fallen out of the spotlight but are in reality competitive. Predicting what other constituencies will fall, other than Aljunied GRC, is thus likely to be a futile exercise.

Conclusion

Whether you are a PAP or an Opposition supporter, the coming election will be critical to the long term future of both the PAP and the Opposition. Watch the results closely!