With Nomination Day over, we can predict to some precision the likely outcome of this GE. This insight is derived from the Cube Rule, which allows us to forecast the number of constituencies won based on vote share alone.
Basically, the Cube Rule states that : In an 2-party electoral system like ours, the number of constituencies won by each party will generally follow the ratio of (A: B)^3, with A and B being the opposing parties.
This rule worked well for the last GE, in which 16 constituencies were contested. The PAP won the election with approximately 2/3 of the vote, suggesting that the Opposition would win only 1 constituency to 8 PAP wards, or in other words, slightly less than 2 wards. This proved to be true, as the Opposition retained control of Potong Pasir and Hougang.
So how about this year? Out of 27, 1 (Tanjong Pagar) was uncontested, and another (Punggol East) has a 3-cornered fight. This leaves 25 contested constituencies with 2-way contests.
With that, take your pick at the result this year! A list of realistic outcomes (in our view) are shown below.
The maths suggests that even if the PAP does not lose vote share this year, the Opposition stands a good chance to win another ward. Of course, take that with a pinch of salt!
EDIT: Corrected a calculation error!
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Comment by Okechukwu — October 20, 2011 @ 8:50 am
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Comment by Okechukwu — October 20, 2011 @ 8:43 am
A bit on the conservative side, your estimates. I expect a swing of around minus 8-10% for the PAP, so a figure of 56-58% is what I’m guessing.
But I expect the seats to be slightly more than your estimate.
However interestingly your forecasts is close to the ‘markets’. Illegal bookies ‘black-market’ odds is a gain of 2+2 (grc:smc) or 2+1 for the opposition, which translates to say: the opposition winning 1 5 seat GRC (Alj) and 1 4 seater (Holland-Bt Timah) and either retaining 1 or both smcs currently held. So that works out to between 9 -11 which your table reflects.
Historically, they (the bookies) are usually quite accurate with their odds when all the dust has settled. (I think only in 1991, they got it wrong, not sensing the opposition winning more than 3 seats).
Comment by Romanis — April 29, 2011 @ 9:24 am
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