Thoughts on the opposition electoral strategy

Let us focus on two aspects of the opposition’s plans:

• Tampines GRC

With three opposition parties all expressing interest in this ward, Tampines GRC looks like it will have an interesting election ahead. But will it actually fall?

Judging from the 2006 election, most probably not. Tampines GRC leaned 2 points above the national average in the last election. A 19 point swing would be required to win there, which translates to roughly 20 000 votes.

That being said, it is definitely conceivable with the right campaigning. Afterall, the WP managed to cause a 12% swing towards it in Aljunied in the last election (relative to the national average). Assuming a 4% change in the national average in 2010, Tampines will then be 3% away from falling, a little too close for comfort.

In all likelihood however, this won’t happen, barring a sea change in politics (growing and massive voter outrage at housing prices could be a candidate)

• Chiam See Tong contesting Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC instead of Potong Pasir.

A highly risky move. Mr Chiam’s departure from Potong Pasir potentially leaves that seat up for grabs, while winning Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC is far from certain.

Granted, Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC has not seen a contest since its creation, and so the PAP team there has had little experience in campaigning. Matching them up against a veteran opposition leader could significantly increase the chance of an upset victory by the opposition, but there is one factor that makes this gamble far more risky.

This factor is the incumbent effect. What is it? Let me illustrate.

Currently, my MP is Mrs Halimah Yacob, and she has represented my ward for nearly 9 years and counting, and thus she has become a fixture of the constituency here, and most residents have met and interacted with her personally.

In effect, she (and the rest of her team) has become a known quantity in Jurong GRC.

Even though I currently do not have a preference for either party, and even though I may have disagreements with the PAP, given a choice between a known quantity and an entirely fresh team whom I have had no experience with, I could end up voting for the PAP just for this reason.

This effect helps to explain the staying power of both our PAP and Opposition MPs. It seems to be quite a significant effect too. Given the 18% difference between the WP in Hougang and Aljunied, I would probably estimate its magnitude at an additional 9% towards the incumbent.

While some think that Mr Chiam would have some benefit from being in a constituency adjacent to Bishan-Toa Payoh, I still think he will face an uphill battle there.

Conversely,  Potong Pasir becomes up for grabs. With 9% of the electorate whom formerly voted for the SDA now presumably split 50-50, the PAP would get 48.5% there based on the 2006 result making this a toss-up.

So is this worth it? Given the fact that the PAP is unlikely to do as well as it did in 2006, I think the SDA can still hold the seat with a good candidate and adequate preparation. So on balance, Mr Chiam stands to gain from this gamble.