Following up on yesterday, we tried to find out how voters perceive each opposition party. We did so by comparing the vote totals each opposition party gained in PAP held constituencies, summing them up and dividing by the total votes cast in those constituencies to get an “approval rating” against the PAP.
So, while 23.2% of voters preferred the SDP over the PAP, this figure soars to 31.7% for the SDA and climbs even higher to 37.2% for the WP.
What does this mean? Given the public’s general perception of the SDP, we can assume that these 23.2% of the voting population were mostly diehard opposition supporters. Thus, the generic opposition candidate in a two-way fight should get at least 20% of the vote.
Then, the higher percentages for the SDA and the WP suggest that a further fraction, consisting of about 10% to 20% of the electorate, are independents that are however persuadable to vote for the PAP. To win, the opposition needs to secure these voters.
This observation holds up in the 2001 GE, which was a good year for the PAP. In that year, the SDP garnered 20.4% of the vote, which was a 3% loss in vote share from 2006. In comparison, the SDA and WP experienced larger falls of 4.7% and 10.9% respectively. This trend is best explained by the loss of independent voters while the diehard supporters stayed put.
Judging from the difference between the vote totals in opposition held wards and PAP wards, we estimate another 10-20% of the electorate are voters that lean towards the PAP. These voters can be persuaded to vote for the opposition (given the opposition’s success in Potong Pasir and Hougang) but tend not to, instead preferring to vote for the more familiar incumbent.
Thus, in the current political climate, the opposition has some work to do in order to win. It has to secure voters that are not its natural supporters in order to win. This is not to say it is impossible, but we will need to see an opposition that appeals to the needs of these voters.
Your site was extremely interesting, especially since I was searching for thoughts on this subject last Thursday.
Comment by TSwain — February 7, 2010 @ 5:18 am
To be objective in this analysis, you should mention that the general public’s perception of the SDP is moulded by the local media which slanders it more than any other party.
I’m just an ordinary citizen but looking at the papers over the years, I find that to be a striking fact.
Comment by ra — January 14, 2010 @ 4:34 am
True, but we are not focusing on the origin of this perception, but rather the effect of it.
Comment by Some group — January 15, 2010 @ 12:55 am