The 2006 PAP Scoreboard

By comparing local results to the national average, we can see which constituencies tend to favour the PAP and vice versa. The chart below shows how each contested constituency in 2006 lies relative to the nation, with bluer constituencies favouring the PAP and redder constituencies favouring the opposition.

Several interesting observations follow:

• Most constituencies lie within 2-3 points of the national average. This implies that the opposition can gain a substantial number of seats if it can narrow the PAP’s margin of victory to around the 50% mark.

• If the same conditions hold, expect Aljunied GRC to face a very close fight in 2010, especially if our forecast of a 4% fall in the PAP national average holds. That would put Aljunied GRC perilously close enough for a concerted opposition campaign to grab it away from the PAP.

• Not all opposition parties are created equal. We will explore this detail in an upcoming post, but for now, it should be noted that the purported “PAP strongholds” in this chart, namely Bukit Panjang SMC and Sembawang GRC, were all contested by the SDP.