The difference between local level elections and a national election.

We now zoom in from national level performance into PAP electoral performance in individual constituencies.

While previously, we suggested that PAP national performance was strongly constrained by the economy, it turns out that there is much more wiggle room on the local level. For instance, compare the results for Potong Pasir SMC and Choa Chu Kang SMC for the 1984 GE and thereafter.

The difference is quite stark. While the PAP’s performance in CCK SMC does not correlate very well with the national result as a whole, the reverse is true in Potong Pasir. In fact, they almost parallel each other, with the graph suggesting that the local PAP vote share in Potong Pasir increases by 1.02% for every 1% increase in the PAP national performance.

To me, this difference is likely due to the fact that Potong Pasir, given its status,  is a national bellwether while CCK is not.

Thus, while local concerns are more likely to persuade CCK voters, voters in Potong Pasir have to take into account the fact that their vote determines the fate of 1 out only 2 opposition MPs in Parliament. This causes the PAP performance there to follow the national mood in general.