Preliminary forecast for a likely 2010 GE

EDIT: With SM Goh dismissing the rumours, the chance of a 2010 GE appears less likely. Nevertheless, this post will still remain here for reference.

We have now come to the point where we can make an estimate of the results of a rumoured 2010 GE.

With the government forecasting 2.5% to 3.5% inflation, this GE will be different from the previous two conducted during periods of only 1% inflation. The model thus punishes the PAP and forecasts a poorer performance than the last GE, with the most likely scenario providing a 62.5% victory, more than 4% down from the last GE.

We provide 3 different scenarios from the perspective of the PAP, as forecast by the model (Economic data from here, while resident population growth estimates were from historical population data)

Unfortunately, the highly optimistic 6.5% growth forecast seems unlikely to occur in reality.The 5% upper bound by the government seems somewhat more likely, and yields 60.2%.

So, from current data, we estimate that 62.5% will be the most likely result, take or give 2.5%.

It is a somewhat unexpected result, given the comparatively excellent results by the PAP in the past two GEs. But we should note that the past two elections were somewhat an anomaly compared to the 1980s (excluding 1980 itself) and 1990s, where 60%-65% was the norm.

We also do realise that predicting the future is far more difficult than simply observing trends, and thus this exercise is not much more than throwing darts on a board. Nevertheless, we think its worth giving a shot.